Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, G4 3205 at 08:31, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


G4 3205 Allegiant	ATW 08:31	LAS 10:30	10%	6%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 05:31 → ATL 08:43DL 1436	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:02DL 466	8h 31m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421	8h 28m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	3h 05m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766	8h 42m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor	3h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	8h 26m	94%	78%
United Details →	ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 10:52 → LAS 12:46UA 1803	6h 31m	92%	76%
Delta Details →	ATW 14:05 → DTW 16:30DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor	2h 10m Detroit	DTW 18:40 → LAS 19:54DL 544	7h 49m	93%	76%
American Details →	ATW 05:59 → DFW 08:36AA 4189 · flown by Envoy	2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → LAS 11:52AA 1482	7h 53m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	2h 03m Minneapolis	MSP 14:51 → LAS 16:10DL 1542	6h 43m	89%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 18:20 → LAS 20:06UA 1703	6h 22m	71%	47%
United Details →	ATW 14:40 → ORD 16:00UA 4383 · flown by GoJet	58m Chicago	ORD 16:58 → LAS 19:04UA 365	6h 24m	62%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON