Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3721 at 05:32 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 3721 ATW 05:32 → ORD 06:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest UA 4757 ATW 12:31 → ORD 13:43 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3721 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 05:32	ORD 06:42	9%	3%	2.8%	82%
OO 5340 SkyWest	ATW 06:27	ORD 07:39	14%	7%	2.7%	no record
OO 4648 SkyWest	ATW 08:09	ORD 09:24	16%	8%	2.3%	no record
OO 4669 SkyWest	ATW 10:01	ORD 11:13	19%	10%	1.7%	no record
MQ 3340 Envoy	ATW 11:32	ORD 12:42	20%	7%	2.2%	no record
MQ 3341 Envoy	ATW 18:32	ORD 19:42	24%	9%	3.0%	no record
OO 4681 SkyWest	ATW 14:40	ORD 15:52	25%	10%	2.2%	no record
UA 4757 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ATW 12:31	ORD 13:43	26%	11%	2.3%	80%
UA 4170 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 12:24	ORD 13:46	12%	5%	1.6%	88%
UA 4190 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 08:15	ORD 09:45	14%	7%	0.0%	86%
UA 4383 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 14:40	ORD 15:59	36%	19%	8.9%	64%
UA 4391 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	ATW 15:44	ORD 17:05	40%	11%	5.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON