Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 188 at 11:46, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 188 Southwest	AUS 11:46	AMA 13:18	7%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:44 → AMA 10:09AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	5h 08m	98%	90%
United Details →	AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966	2h 57m Houston	IAH 09:30 → AMA 11:21UA 4821 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 51m	99%	86%
American Details →	AUS 09:25 → DFW 10:44AA 862	3h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:24 → AMA 15:43AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	6h 18m	98%	85%
United Details →	AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa	3h 09m Houston	IAH 20:34 → AMA 22:30UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 20m	97%	81%
United Details →	AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196	1h 40m Houston	IAH 12:25 → AMA 14:21UA 4817 · flown by CommuteAir	4h 46m	98%	81%
United Details →	AUS 11:27 → DEN 12:45UA 779	1h 25m Denver	DEN 14:10 → AMA 16:43UA 5233 · flown by SkyWest	5h 16m	96%	81%
American Details →	AUS 10:47 → DFW 12:12AA 794	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:09 → AMA 14:28AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	3h 41m	90%	78%
American Details →	AUS 15:10 → DFW 16:29AA 2198	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:20 → AMA 18:39AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	3h 29m	77%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON