tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via LAX, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Aspen on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946 2h 24m Los Angeles LAX 17:12 → ASE 20:25DL 3704 · flown by SkyWest 7h 45m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 47m Denver DEN 07:45 → ASE 08:46UA 5444 · flown by SkyWest 4h 07m 92% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 3h 51m Denver DEN 13:40 → ASE 14:44UA 5771 · flown by SkyWest 7h 14m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 11:27 → DEN 12:45UA 779 3h 37m Denver DEN 16:22 → ASE 17:26UA 5697 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 12:55 → DEN 14:14UA 1541 3h 11m Denver DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest 6h 34m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 58m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → ASE 11:22DL 4011 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 3h 17m Houston IAH 09:50 → ASE 11:40UA 5814 · flown by SkyWest 7h 10m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON