Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1344 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 1344 AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 4702 AUS 17:34 → ATL 21:16 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1344 Delta Flight history →	AUS 05:25	ATL 08:47	4%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 3642 Southwest	AUS 07:16	ATL 10:38	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1258 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:25	ATL 09:45	4%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	AUS 10:35	ATL 13:54	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2899 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	ATL 11:26	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2886 Delta Flight history →	AUS 12:09	ATL 15:35	9%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:31	ATL 17:00	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:55	ATL 20:29	11%	4%	0.6%	80%
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:00	ATL 18:25	12%	3%	0.6%	79%
DL 1491 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:24	ATL 21:59	12%	5%	0.6%	76%
WN 267 Southwest	AUS 13:36	ATL 16:58	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 202 Southwest	AUS 17:52	ATL 21:15	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
F9 4702 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 17:34	ATL 21:16	34%	12%	0.8%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON