Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4446 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4446 AUS 06:58 → BNA 09:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 186 AUS 17:27 → BNA 19:42 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4446 Southwest	AUS 06:58	BNA 09:14	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 407 Southwest	AUS 08:43	BNA 10:58	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3960 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 08:25	BNA 10:43	12%	5%	0.5%	79%
WN 1890 Southwest	AUS 13:18	BNA 15:32	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3945 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 15:34	BNA 18:02	19%	8%	0.5%	60%
WN 275 Southwest	AUS 15:57	BNA 18:12	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 4163 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 18:57	BNA 21:18	22%	8%	0.6%	72%
WN 186 Southwest	AUS 17:27	BNA 19:42	24%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON