Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2098 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–35%.

Safest bet that day DL 2098 AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 1238 AUS 14:14 → BOS 19:25 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2098 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:20	BOS 12:29	7%	3%	0.7%	88%
WN 279 Southwest	AUS 11:41	BOS 16:49	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 1297 Delta Flight history →	AUS 17:45	BOS 22:55	26%	13%	0.7%	57%
DL 1156 Delta Flight history →	AUS 14:30	BOS 19:42	28%	13%	0.7%	56%
B6 1238 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 14:14	BOS 19:25	35%	21%	0.8%	77%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966	57m Houston	IAH 07:30 → BOS 12:28UA 1977	5h 58m	95%	85%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:13 → BOS 12:10AA 1438	6h 09m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	56m Atlanta	ATL 12:22 → BOS 15:00DL 1293	5h 45m	93%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON