tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 282 at 16:11, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 282 Southwest AUS 16:11 BUR 17:31 24% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541 1h 33m Portland PDX 10:58 → BUR 13:14AS 1552 7h 59m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:38 → SFO 15:47UA 1336 2h 18m San Francisco SFO 18:05 → BUR 19:34UA 2001 7h 56m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 8h 30m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 26m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 6h 18m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:17 → BUR 11:49AA 1208 7h 49m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671 56m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 5h 52m 86% 78%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:00 → SFO 07:53UA 2177 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 10:23 → BUR 11:49UA 2115 7h 49m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:40 → SFO 10:25UA 1668 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 8h 37m 99% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON