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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Dulles, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Charleston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:30 → IAD 11:48UA 525 1h 27m Dulles IAD 13:15 → CHS 15:14UA 1952 6h 44m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381 6h 38m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 52m Denver DEN 09:50 → CHS 15:14UA 1003 8h 35m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 10:46 → CHS 12:00DL 3107 5h 35m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:42DL 2179 6h 17m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 15:59 → CHS 17:16DL 2174 5h 41m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 12:09 → ATL 15:35DL 2886 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 19:27 → CHS 20:42DL 2493 7h 33m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878 1h 21m Chicago ORD 11:00 → CHS 14:26UA 2631 6h 46m 98% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON