Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1032 at 06:08 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 1032 AUS 06:08 → CLT 10:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1161 AUS 16:46 → CLT 20:43 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1032 American Flight history →	AUS 06:08	CLT 10:05	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
AA 1886 American Flight history →	AUS 08:12	CLT 12:00	13%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 1882 American	AUS 11:13	CLT 15:08	13%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 1052 American	AUS 14:49	CLT 18:46	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1161 American Flight history →	AUS 16:46	CLT 20:43	21%	7%	0.8%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON