tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 290 at 16:11, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 290 Southwest AUS 16:11 CVG 19:55 19% 6% 0.6% no record
DL 5005 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record AUS 10:30 CVG 14:12 17% 9% 0.0% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 1h 12m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160 5h 00m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 42m Denver DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:27UA 1978 7h 48m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → CVG 16:41DL 1008 7h 26m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → CVG 12:28DL 3149 5h 03m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 12:09 → ATL 15:35DL 2886 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248 7h 52m 100% 86%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:48 → CVG 11:21AA 2610 5h 20m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest 3h 09m Minneapolis MSP 15:50 → CVG 18:37DL 703 7h 54m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → CVG 14:15AA 3305 7h 15m 99% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → AUS 14:30 → SLC 16:39DL 3908 · flown by SkyWest 46m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CVG 22:46DL 2291 7h 16m 72% 62%
DeltaDetails → AUS 14:30 → BOS 19:42DL 1156 1h 03m Boston BOS 20:45 → CVG 23:16DL 5801 · flown by Republic 7h 46m 74% 55%
DeltaDetails → AUS 09:52 → RDU 14:07DL 4921 · flown by Endeavor 48m Raleigh/Durham RDU 14:55 → CVG 16:41DL 4911 · flown by Endeavor 5h 49m 67% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON