Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 4511 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 1% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 4511 AUS 05:46 → DAL 06:56 · 1% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1438 AUS 18:13 → DAL 19:23 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4511 Southwest	AUS 05:46	DAL 06:56	1%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2636 Southwest	AUS 08:26	DAL 09:37	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 425 Southwest	AUS 12:11	DAL 13:21	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3857 Southwest	AUS 14:01	DAL 15:11	15%	3%	0.8%	no record
B6 8700 JetBlue	AUS 14:25	DAL 15:33	18%	7%	1.3%	no record
WN 1438 Southwest	AUS 18:13	DAL 19:23	20%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON