tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 266 Southwest AUS 12:06 DCA 16:29 19% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 1h 21m Houston IAH 07:54 → DCA 12:18UA 512 5h 48m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 38m 98% 86%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 6h 41m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 32m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 8h 20m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 53m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 02m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 5h 22m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:33 → DCA 13:43AA 2399 6h 43m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 7h 53m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AUS 15:10 → DFW 16:29AA 2198 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:15 → DCA 21:31AA 472 5h 21m 71% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON