Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 2918 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2918 AUS 06:16 → DEN 07:29 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 313 AUS 17:32 → DEN 18:43 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2918 Southwest	AUS 06:16	DEN 07:29	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 361 United Flight history →	AUS 05:39	DEN 06:58	3%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 2130 Southwest	AUS 10:04	DEN 11:16	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:25	DEN 08:48	7%	3%	0.5%	92%
WN 4626 Southwest	AUS 08:56	DEN 10:08	8%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 595 United Flight history →	AUS 08:30	DEN 09:49	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 779 United Flight history →	AUS 11:27	DEN 12:45	9%	4%	0.6%	92%
WN 310 Southwest	AUS 11:59	DEN 13:11	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1541 United Flight history →	AUS 12:55	DEN 14:14	10%	4%	0.6%	96%
UA 2447 United Flight history →	AUS 14:45	DEN 16:22	12%	6%	0.6%	82%
WN 2472 Southwest	AUS 13:59	DEN 15:11	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 439 United Flight history →	AUS 18:29	DEN 20:00	20%	6%	0.6%	68%
DL 3669 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 16:49	DEN 18:14	23%	8%	0.5%	66%
WN 1192 Southwest	AUS 18:57	DEN 20:08	24%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 313 Southwest	AUS 17:32	DEN 18:43	27%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON