Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2563 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2563 AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1146 AUS 17:28 → DFW 18:48 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2563 American Flight history →	AUS 05:01	DFW 06:12	5%	3%	0.8%	93%
AA 579 American Flight history →	AUS 06:00	DFW 07:19	5%	3%	0.8%	91%
AA 2196 American Flight history →	AUS 07:07	DFW 08:37	7%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 794 American Flight history →	AUS 10:47	DFW 12:12	10%	6%	0.7%	80%
AA 1067 American	AUS 07:55	DFW 09:14	10%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 862 American Flight history →	AUS 09:25	DFW 10:44	11%	5%	0.7%	66%
AA 615 American Flight history →	AUS 11:28	DFW 12:47	11%	6%	0.7%	80%
AA 1070 American	AUS 12:39	DFW 13:58	14%	7%	0.8%	no record
MQ 3348 Envoy	AUS 20:00	DFW 21:21	15%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1852 American	AUS 14:04	DFW 15:24	17%	7%	0.7%	no record
AA 2198 American Flight history →	AUS 15:10	DFW 16:29	18%	8%	0.7%	65%
AA 3722 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 18:44	DFW 19:55	20%	5%	0.9%	74%
AA 2103 American	AUS 16:40	DFW 18:04	22%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 1146 American	AUS 17:28	DFW 18:48	24%	9%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON