Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1040 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–13%.

Safest bet that day DL 1040 AUS 05:20 → DTW 09:21 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2736 AUS 16:31 → DTW 20:35 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1040 Delta Flight history →	AUS 05:20	DTW 09:21	3%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 559 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:00	DTW 11:58	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1218 Delta Flight history →	AUS 12:00	DTW 16:02	10%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2736 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:31	DTW 20:35	13%	4%	0.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON