Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 512 Southwest	AUS 12:36	ECP 14:45	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 3767 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 12:43	ECP 15:02	13%	8%	0.6%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	5h 23m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → ECP 17:55DL 3053	7h 20m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823	5h 39m	99%	89%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	3h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:33 → ECP 11:38AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	6h 37m	99%	84%
American Details →	AUS 15:10 → DFW 16:29AA 2198	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:05 → ECP 21:11AA 3628 · flown by Envoy	6h 01m	92%	79%
United Details →	AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966	2h 36m Houston	IAH 09:09 → ECP 11:02UA 4225 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 32m	99%	78%
American Details →	AUS 06:08 → CLT 10:05AA 1032	47m Charlotte	CLT 10:52 → ECP 11:30AA 5262 · flown by PSA	5h 22m	87%	76%
United Details →	AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196	3h 45m Houston	IAH 14:30 → ECP 16:23UA 4902 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 48m	100%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 18:04 → IAH 19:10UA 1326	51m Houston	IAH 20:01 → ECP 21:58UA 4343 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 54m	67%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON