Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1760 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–40%.

Safest bet that day UA 1760 AUS 06:09 → EWR 10:56 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 1399 AUS 14:30 → EWR 19:20 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1760 United Flight history →	AUS 06:09	EWR 10:56	5%	2%	1.0%	93%
UA 1449 United Flight history →	AUS 07:05	EWR 11:50	8%	3%	1.0%	93%
UA 2172 United	AUS 08:59	EWR 14:06	15%	7%	1.0%	no record
UA 1499 United Flight history →	AUS 11:20	EWR 16:21	19%	10%	0.9%	85%
UA 545 United Flight history →	AUS 17:36	EWR 22:41	32%	15%	0.9%	70%
UA 1399 United	AUS 14:30	EWR 19:20	40%	17%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966	47m Houston	IAH 07:20 → EWR 11:59UA 1886	5h 29m	93%	84%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:20 → DTW 09:21DL 1040	54m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577	5h 36m	95%	83%
United Details →	AUS 07:30 → IAD 11:48UA 525	47m Dulles	IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:01UA 1498	5h 31m	83%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON