Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 2272 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29–31%.

Safest bet that day B6 2272 AUS 07:00 → FLL 10:52 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest B6 1972 AUS 18:34 → FLL 22:29 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 2272 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 07:00	FLL 10:52	11%	4%	0.8%	86%
WN 329 Southwest	AUS 15:47	FLL 19:37	29%	8%	0.8%	no record
B6 1972 JetBlue Flight history →	AUS 18:34	FLL 22:29	31%	14%	1.0%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON