Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Wed 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: WN 4471 at 06:11 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day


WN 4471 Southwest	AUS 06:11	HOU 07:17	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4488 Southwest	AUS 13:16	HOU 14:22	18%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:52 → HOU 09:15AA 4036 · flown by Envoy	4h 14m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 12:13 → HOU 13:20DL 1195	6h 55m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	8h 07m	99%	89%
American Details →	AUS 15:10 → DFW 16:29AA 2198	2h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:31 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	4h 38m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON