Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 791 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 791 AUS 05:56 → IND 09:31 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 140 AUS 14:41 → IND 18:15 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 791 Southwest	AUS 05:56	IND 09:31	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 4101 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:10	IND 10:54	10%	5%	0.6%	87%
DL 4027 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:03	IND 17:47	15%	7%	0.6%	86%
DL 3731 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 19:15	IND 22:58	18%	8%	0.6%	81%
WN 140 Southwest	AUS 14:41	IND 18:15	19%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON