tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 107 SkyWest AUS 10:13 JAX 13:53 13% 6% 2.2% no record
WN 1604 Southwest AUS 12:31 JAX 16:12 16% 4% 1.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:48 → JAX 11:26AA 1061 5h 25m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:00 → DTW 11:58DL 559 3h 04m Detroit DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994 8h 27m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 13:57 → JAX 15:09DL 2990 5h 54m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024 7h 20m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 1h 02m Houston IAH 07:35 → JAX 10:56UA 6146 · flown by Mesa 4h 26m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 57m Houston IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa 7h 27m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 17:51 → JAX 19:13DL 2189 7h 38m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 12:55 → DEN 14:14UA 1541 1h 53m Denver DEN 16:07 → JAX 21:40UA 1485 7h 45m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 50m Houston IAH 18:15 → JAX 21:41UA 4035 · flown by Mesa 4h 31m 64% 50%
DeltaDetails → AUS 14:30 → BOS 19:42DL 1156 53m Boston BOS 20:35 → JAX 23:39DL 5593 · flown by Republic 8h 09m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON