Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2292 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2292 AUS 06:06 → JFK 11:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1405 AUS 17:11 → JFK 22:15 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2292 American Flight history →	AUS 06:06	JFK 11:00	5%	3%	0.9%	88%
DL 1411 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:35	JFK 12:25	5%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1406 Delta Flight history →	AUS 11:15	JFK 16:20	12%	5%	0.7%	86%
AA 763 American Flight history →	AUS 11:02	JFK 15:59	14%	7%	0.9%	78%
DL 2323 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:35	JFK 20:51	18%	8%	0.7%	73%
DL 1643 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:00	JFK 22:59	21%	7%	0.8%	80%
AA 1405 American Flight history →	AUS 17:11	JFK 22:15	25%	8%	0.9%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	57m Atlanta	ATL 09:44 → JFK 12:00DL 1034	5h 35m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:20 → DTW 09:21DL 1040	53m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	5h 38m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON