Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 344 at 05:46 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 344 AUS 05:46 → LAS 06:42 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 391 AUS 15:51 → LAS 16:46 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 344 Southwest	AUS 05:46	LAS 06:42	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 345 Southwest	AUS 07:16	LAS 08:12	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2451 Southwest	AUS 09:51	LAS 10:46	6%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 347 Southwest	AUS 12:46	LAS 13:41	13%	3%	0.4%	no record
F9 3645 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 12:12	LAS 13:17	17%	9%	0.8%	77%
WN 2088 Southwest	AUS 19:41	LAS 20:36	18%	8%	0.5%	no record
WN 4200 Southwest	AUS 14:31	LAS 15:26	19%	5%	0.4%	no record
DL 2260 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:29	LAS 16:20	19%	9%	0.4%	72%
WN 391 Southwest	AUS 15:51	LAS 16:46	20%	6%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON