Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 1276 at 05:16 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 1276 AUS 05:16 → LAX 06:34 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 384 AUS 19:02 → LAX 20:21 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1276 Southwest	AUS 05:16	LAX 06:34	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 6472 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:01	LAX 08:24	9%	4%	0.6%	100%
DL 306 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:30	LAX 08:37	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
OO 6243 SkyWest	AUS 14:59	LAX 16:23	11%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:40	LAX 14:48	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 357 United Flight history →	AUS 08:07	LAX 09:30	11%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 637 United Flight history →	AUS 13:54	LAX 15:15	12%	5%	0.6%	89%
WN 356 Southwest	AUS 12:56	LAX 14:15	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1584 Delta Flight history →	AUS 20:30	LAX 21:43	16%	5%	0.6%	84%
DL 986 Delta Flight history →	AUS 16:15	LAX 17:20	17%	5%	0.6%	68%
WN 384 Southwest	AUS 19:02	LAX 20:21	22%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON