Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 363 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 363 AUS 06:06 → MCI 08:07 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3577 AUS 17:05 → MCI 19:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 363 Southwest	AUS 06:06	MCI 08:07	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 3650 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:10	MCI 09:19	8%	3%	0.5%	93%
WN 364 Southwest	AUS 14:26	MCI 16:26	18%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 3577 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 17:05	MCI 19:16	22%	8%	0.6%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON