Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 366 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 366 AUS 05:06 → MCO 08:46 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 370 AUS 17:41 → MCO 21:22 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 366 Southwest	AUS 05:06	MCO 08:46	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2522 Southwest	AUS 08:56	MCO 12:37	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2259 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:00	MCO 11:40	6%	3%	0.6%	87%
F9 4524 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 10:49	MCO 14:40	12%	5%	1.7%	80%
WN 4582 Southwest	AUS 12:16	MCO 15:56	15%	3%	1.0%	no record
DL 648 Delta	AUS 15:20	MCO 19:07	22%	6%	1.6%	no record
WN 1740 Southwest	AUS 16:01	MCO 19:41	24%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 370 Southwest	AUS 17:41	MCO 21:22	26%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON