Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3645 Southwest	AUS 14:46	MEM 16:36	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 3952 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 19:55	MEM 21:48	18%	8%	0.7%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 07m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → MEM 14:15DL 733	6h 00m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	6h 32m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 07m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 13:31 → ATL 17:00DL 2011	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 20:11 → MEM 20:34DL 3020	7h 03m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:09 → ATL 15:35DL 2886	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → MEM 18:16DL 2939	6h 07m	99%	83%
American Details →	AUS 09:25 → DFW 10:44AA 862	2h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → MEM 14:35AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	5h 10m	95%	82%
United Details →	AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → MEM 14:42UA 5414 · flown by SkyWest	8h 02m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON