Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 406 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31%.

Safest bet that day AA 406 AUS 05:02 → MIA 08:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest MQ 4124 AUS 16:16 → MIA 20:18 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 406 American Flight history →	AUS 05:02	MIA 08:58	7%	2%	1.1%	91%
DL 2507 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:35	MIA 12:35	9%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 812 American Flight history →	AUS 11:56	MIA 15:52	17%	5%	1.0%	80%
WN 3581 Southwest	AUS 15:41	MIA 19:31	28%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 2324 American Flight history →	AUS 18:02	MIA 21:58	31%	8%	0.9%	48%
MQ 4124 Envoy	AUS 16:16	MIA 20:18	31%	9%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON