Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1242 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–18%.

Safest bet that day DL 1242 AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 1042 AUS 18:04 → MSP 20:52 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1242 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:10	MSP 09:00	3%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 3813 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 09:43	MSP 12:41	9%	5%	0.5%	89%
WN 3124 Southwest	AUS 12:56	MSP 15:41	14%	4%	0.4%	no record
DL 2062 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:48	MSP 16:35	14%	6%	0.6%	69%
DL 1042 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:04	MSP 20:52	18%	9%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON