Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 4871 at 18:21, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4871 Southwest	AUS 18:21	OAK 19:59	32%	7%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21DL 3903 · flown by SkyWest	6h 01m	91%	83%
Frontier Details →	AUS 12:47 → LAS 13:40F9 3645	2h 39m Las Vegas	LAS 16:19 → OAK 18:07F9 3837	7h 20m	94%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON