tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 527 at 14:31, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 527 Southwest AUS 14:31 OKC 15:59 19% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 1h 02m Denver DEN 08:00 → OKC 10:49UA 6029 · flown by SkyWest 5h 10m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020 6h 47m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:30 → OKC 08:50AA 4946 · flown by SkyWest 3h 49m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 52m Houston IAH 07:25 → OKC 08:57UA 6178 · flown by Mesa 3h 27m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 6h 40m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 2h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:25 → OKC 10:43AA 1902 4h 43m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 1h 33m Houston IAH 09:46 → OKC 11:22UA 4344 · flown by CommuteAir 4h 12m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → OKC 16:22DL 2862 5h 47m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 47m Houston IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53UA 5278 · flown by SkyWest 3h 43m 54% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON