Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 553 at 11:46, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 553 Southwest	AUS 11:46	ONT 12:58	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:17 → ONT 12:12DL 1173	5h 57m	94%	87%
United Details →	AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595	1h 36m Denver	DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430	6h 17m	98%	84%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:29 → ONT 09:52AA 1820	6h 51m	98%	84%
American Details →	AUS 07:07 → DFW 08:37AA 2196	3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:15 → ONT 13:42AA 2635	8h 35m	99%	83%
American Details →	AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:49 → ONT 12:10AA 2956	8h 10m	99%	82%
American Details →	AUS 08:38 → PHX 09:31AA 455	1h 25m Phoenix	PHX 10:56 → ONT 12:29AA 2661	5h 51m	94%	81%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891	9h 55m	100%	79%
United Details →	AUS 06:00 → SFO 07:53UA 2177	2h 47m San Francisco	SFO 10:40 → ONT 12:12UA 2661	8h 12m	100%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON