Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Denver, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 541 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 07:15	PDX 09:25	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
AS 1396 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 17:41	PDX 19:50	15%	4%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:41DL 1661	8h 31m	98%	92%
United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	1h 07m Denver	DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247	6h 08m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 52m	97%	89%
United Details →	AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595	3h 38m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	8h 43m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	10h 21m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 33m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	7h 58m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	5h 55m	93%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	AUS 14:30 → SLC 16:39DL 3908 · flown by SkyWest	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	5h 48m	72%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON