Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2774 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2774 AUS 07:30 → PHL 12:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1069 AUS 16:21 → PHL 21:16 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2774 American Flight history →	AUS 07:30	PHL 12:05	11%	4%	0.8%	85%
AA 888 American	AUS 12:07	PHL 17:02	16%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 1069 American	AUS 16:21	PHL 21:16	24%	10%	0.8%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	AUS 15:00 → ATL 18:25DL 2104	50m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → PHL 21:20DL 2065	5h 20m	83%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON