Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 396 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 396 AUS 06:01 → PHX 06:34 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2023 AUS 18:26 → PHX 19:00 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 396 Southwest	AUS 06:01	PHX 06:34	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 397 Southwest	AUS 08:38	PHX 09:14	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4472 Southwest	AUS 10:39	PHX 11:14	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 455 American Flight history →	AUS 08:38	PHX 09:31	9%	4%	0.6%	90%
OO 3535 SkyWest	AUS 08:05	PHX 08:46	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2042 American Flight history →	AUS 12:04	PHX 12:28	14%	8%	0.6%	83%
AA 1059 American	AUS 14:25	PHX 15:07	14%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 399 Southwest	AUS 13:49	PHX 14:26	15%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 3484 Southwest	AUS 16:46	PHX 17:22	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2023 Southwest	AUS 18:26	PHX 19:00	22%	8%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON