tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Pensacola on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640 6h 35m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 5h 26m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013 6h 58m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 6h 28m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:31 → ATL 17:00DL 2011 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 19:49 → PNS 20:04DL 3021 6h 33m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 32m Denver DEN 11:21 → PNS 15:21UA 1891 6h 51m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 35m Houston IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 31m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:40 → ORD 09:39UA 1878 1h 27m Chicago ORD 11:06 → PNS 13:36UA 2492 6h 56m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 47m Houston IAH 18:12 → PNS 19:58UA 6195 · flown by Mesa 3h 48m 54% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON