tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 3560 at 12:31, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3560 Southwest AUS 12:31 RNO 13:58 16% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671 2h 06m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 6h 32m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 5h 54m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 1h 31m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 6h 09m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 11:27 → DEN 12:45UA 779 3h 25m Denver DEN 16:10 → RNO 17:36UA 1604 8h 09m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:07 → LAX 09:30UA 357 3h 37m Los Angeles LAX 13:07 → RNO 14:43UA 1544 8h 36m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946 2h 02m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest 6h 41m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:50 → RNO 10:11AA 1911 7h 10m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:31 → ATL 17:00DL 2011 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 19:57 → RNO 21:42DL 391 10h 11m 99% 78%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON