Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 699 at 06:41 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 699 AUS 06:41 → SAN 07:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 417 AUS 18:01 → SAN 19:06 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 699 Southwest	AUS 06:41	SAN 07:47	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
AS 3293 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 06:00	SAN 07:08	10%	4%	1.0%	89%
WN 411 Southwest	AUS 11:31	SAN 12:37	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3464 SkyWest	AUS 13:59	SAN 15:14	22%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 416 Southwest	AUS 13:41	SAN 14:47	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 417 Southwest	AUS 18:01	SAN 19:06	34%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON