Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 780 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 780 AUS 06:00 → SEA 08:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 532 AUS 15:41 → SEA 17:45 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 780 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:00	SEA 08:23	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1684 Delta Flight history →	AUS 11:14	SEA 13:45	10%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 831 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:14	SEA 20:46	18%	6%	0.6%	76%
AS 503 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 16:17	SEA 18:47	20%	5%	0.6%	87%
AS 416 Alaska	AUS 08:29	SEA 10:31	21%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 339 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 19:07	SEA 21:35	21%	6%	0.6%	74%
WN 532 Southwest	AUS 15:41	SEA 17:45	25%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON