Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via LAX, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 422 Southwest	AUS 06:01	SJC 07:50	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4817 Southwest	AUS 12:11	SJC 14:00	14%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	1h 02m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SJC 09:40UA 2031	6h 01m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:20 → SLC 14:09DL 2671	3h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest	8h 06m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	10h 17m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383	7h 51m	97%	87%
Alaska Details →	AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541	2h 27m Portland	PDX 11:52 → SJC 13:42AS 694	8h 27m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 15:00 → ATL 18:25DL 2104	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	9h 49m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	1h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 20m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	56m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 05m	96%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	AUS 14:30 → SLC 16:39DL 3908 · flown by SkyWest	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → SJC 18:26DL 3937 · flown by SkyWest	5h 56m	72%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON