Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 3186 at 08:26 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3186 AUS 08:26 → SLC 10:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2581 AUS 19:25 → SLC 21:21 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3186 Southwest	AUS 08:26	SLC 10:10	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2618 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	SLC 10:12	7%	3%	0.5%	94%
DL 3908 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 14:30	SLC 16:39	11%	5%	0.6%	86%
DL 2671 Delta Flight history →	AUS 12:20	SLC 14:09	13%	3%	0.5%	75%
DL 2581 Delta Flight history →	AUS 19:25	SLC 21:21	16%	5%	0.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON