Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 427 at 19:31, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 427 Southwest	AUS 19:31	SMF 21:17	26%	9%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	1h 02m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149	5h 56m	97%	90%
Alaska Details →	AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541	1h 35m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	7h 18m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 59m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 01m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 13:31 → ATL 17:00DL 2011	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	11h 22m	99%	86%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:39 → SMF 10:36AA 2081	7h 35m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:00 → SEA 08:23DL 780	1h 47m Seattle	SEA 10:10 → SMF 12:17DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest	8h 17m	97%	85%
United Details →	AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595	1h 52m Denver	DEN 11:41 → SMF 13:19UA 2673	6h 49m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON