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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 677 at 18:51, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 677 Southwest AUS 18:51 SNA 20:05 24% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 11:27 → DEN 12:45UA 779 3h 29m Denver DEN 16:14 → SNA 17:54UA 1497 8h 27m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:30 → DEN 09:49UA 595 3h 36m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 8h 27m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:28 → SNA 09:55AA 2114 6h 54m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:30 → IAH 06:33UA 1966 2h 57m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 29m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 15:00 → ATL 18:25DL 2104 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 9h 25m 99% 84%
AlaskaDetails → AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541 1h 13m Portland PDX 10:38 → SNA 13:15AS 588 8h 00m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:35 → SNA 11:01AA 1939 7h 01m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → AUS 07:07 → DFW 08:37AA 2196 3h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:21 → SNA 13:48AA 2465 8h 41m 99% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON