tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 294 at 17:51, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 294 Southwest AUS 17:51 TUL 19:26 22% 9% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 31m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 3h 06m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 1h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:17 → TUL 08:37AA 4063 · flown by Envoy 3h 36m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 7h 29m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:23 → IAH 17:45UA 685 3h 57m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 6h 52m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 1h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:34 → TUL 09:55AA 2348 3h 55m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 40m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → AUS 07:07 → DFW 08:37AA 2196 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:37 → TUL 11:58AA 2352 4h 51m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 55m Houston IAH 18:20 → TUL 20:00UA 3991 · flown by Mesa 3h 50m 67% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON