Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2712 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 2712 AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 3101 AVL 18:00 → ATL 19:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2712 Delta Flight history →	AVL 05:35	ATL 06:34	6%	3%	1.1%	88%
DL 3059 Delta	AVL 11:48	ATL 12:55	8%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 3077 Delta Flight history →	AVL 10:05	ATL 11:05	8%	3%	1.1%	88%
DL 1182 Delta Flight history →	AVL 13:59	ATL 15:03	10%	4%	0.9%	87%
DL 2853 Delta Flight history →	AVL 07:53	ATL 08:57	10%	3%	1.2%	91%
DL 3099 Delta Flight history →	AVL 15:25	ATL 16:30	13%	4%	0.9%	80%
DL 3101 Delta Flight history →	AVL 18:00	ATL 19:08	16%	5%	0.8%	80%
DL 5122 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 19:45	ATL 21:02	40%	31%	2.3%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON