tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → BOS 11:06DL 2432 5h 31m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 5h 54m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → AVL 05:30 → PHL 07:21AA 5846 · flown by Piedmont 3h 09m Philadelphia PHL 10:30 → BOS 12:03AA 1416 6h 33m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 19:57 → BOS 22:35DL 457 7h 10m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont 2h 25m Charlotte CLT 12:39 → BOS 15:02AA 1140 6h 10m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 12:22 → BOS 15:00DL 1293 4h 55m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821 7h 01m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → AVL 06:00 → EWR 08:08UA 4399 · flown by GoJet 3h 51m Newark EWR 11:59 → BOS 13:16UA 1669 7h 16m 94% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AVL 16:53 → DFW 18:34AA 569 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:34 → BOS 00:27 +1AA 1366 7h 34m 72% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON