tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 5213 American flown by PSA Flight history → AVL 12:02 DCA 13:37 26% 9% 2.6% 79%
AA 5052 American flown by PSA Flight history → AVL 19:58 DCA 21:43 32% 18% 3.1% 52%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 52m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 10:59 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 4h 54m 94% 81%
DeltaDetails → AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 4h 51m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325 6h 48m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → DCA 21:49DL 727 6h 24m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → AVL 10:51 → ORD 11:57UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest 3h 03m Chicago ORD 15:00 → DCA 18:12UA 1941 7h 21m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → AVL 11:23 → ORD 12:26AA 3963 · flown by Envoy 2h 29m Chicago ORD 14:55 → DCA 18:00AA 2769 6h 37m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → AVL 11:20 → CLT 12:32AA 6101 · flown by Piedmont 2h 02m Charlotte CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839 4h 53m 97% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AVL 10:51 → ORD 11:57UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest 48m Chicago ORD 12:45 → DCA 15:52UA 752 5h 01m 68% 55%
AmericanDetails → AVL 11:23 → ORD 12:26AA 3963 · flown by Envoy 52m Chicago ORD 13:18 → DCA 16:25AA 789 5h 02m 69% 51%
AmericanDetails → AVL 18:20 → CLT 19:39AA 6032 · flown by Piedmont 58m Charlotte CLT 20:37 → DCA 22:24AA 2432 4h 04m 61% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON