Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, UA 440 at 15:34, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 440 United	AVL 15:34	DEN 16:57	15%	7%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 30m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	8h 07m	98%	85%
American Details →	AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont	2h 51m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → DEN 14:40AA 696	7h 48m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → DEN 14:58DL 530	6h 53m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	AVL 15:25 → ATL 16:30DL 3099	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	7h 18m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	5h 57m	95%	78%
United Details →	AVL 10:51 → ORD 11:57UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Chicago	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	7h 40m	97%	77%
United Details →	AVL 06:00 → EWR 08:08UA 4399 · flown by GoJet	3h 47m Newark	EWR 11:55 → DEN 14:13UA 1999	10h 13m	94%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON