Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3269 at 08:06 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3269 American	AVL 08:06	DFW 09:51	15%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 569 American Flight history →	AVL 16:53	DFW 18:34	28%	12%	1.3%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 05:35 → ATL 06:34DL 2712	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961	6h 37m	99%	89%
American Details →	AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 12:59 → DFW 14:48AA 1690	6h 56m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	AVL 10:05 → ATL 11:05DL 3077	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → DFW 15:45DL 921	6h 40m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	AVL 07:53 → ATL 08:57DL 2853	2h 31m Atlanta	ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414	5h 51m	95%	82%
American Details →	AVL 10:44 → PHL 12:34AA 6031 · flown by Piedmont	2h 26m Philadelphia	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	8h 06m	100%	79%
American Details →	AVL 11:20 → CLT 12:32AA 6101 · flown by Piedmont	2h 32m Charlotte	CLT 15:04 → DFW 16:58AA 1709	6h 38m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	AVL 13:59 → ATL 15:03DL 1182	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → DFW 19:05DL 1827	6h 06m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	AVL 18:00 → ATL 19:08DL 3101	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 20:50 → DFW 22:11DL 3161	5h 11m	93%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AVL 15:55 → LGA 18:05AA 4418 · flown by Republic	52m New York	LGA 18:57 → DFW 21:39AA 2238	6h 44m	67%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON